Midseason Stock Watch: Outfield

Nick J. Faleris
April 25, 2011

Next up on our midseason review here at the DSS Blog is a look at some of the evolving values of the various players listed on our updated top 30 outfielders rankings.

Holding Value
Derek "Bubba" Starling (Gardner Edgerton HS, Gardner, Kan.):  Starling had his spring season delayed due to some mild leg issues, but the effect on his draft stock is insignificant.  Starling showed everything he needed to over the past summer, and there is little he could do against uneven Kansas competition to push evaluators one way or the other.  Starling is the best athlete in the class and more than held his own against his fellow top-tier draft-eligible high schoolers through the summer.  His immense ceiling, dynamic athleticism and fierce competitiveness make him the top outfielder in the class, and highly unlikely to be unseated come June.  Only a potentially high price tag will keep him out of the top five overall picks.

George Springer (Univ. of Connecticut):  After a slow start, Springer has fully turned things around through the first half of the season, currently sitting at .380/.475/.684.  He has cut down on strikeouts without sacrificing pop (.303 ISO), but questions remain as to his overall approach from at bat to at bat.  Particularly in light of the inconsistent performances of Jackie Bradley, Jr., Zach Cone, Jason Coats, Alex Dickerson and Kyle Gaedele, Springer sits comfortably atop the collegiate outfield crop.  He hasn't answered all of the questions surrounding his game, but the improvement in contact rate is a nice start.  With six weeks remaining before the draft, there is still time for him to work his way into top 10 consideration. 

Josh Bell (Jesuit Coll. Prep., Dallas, Texas):  Bell picked up this spring where he left off in Jupiter last October -- hitting.  The big, strong, projectable outfielder is going to get even bigger and even stronger, with a chance to develop into true plus-plus power at an outfield corner.  He handles the barrel with ease and could hit for average, as well.  While he isn't a burner, I think his basepath speed will improve with pro instruction, as his mechanics and lines both look like they haven't been well tended to.  He profiles as a solid athletic power bat at an outfield corner.  

Value Up
Mikie Mahtook (Louisiana St. Univ.):  Mahtook has put together one of the best offensive springs of any draft-eligible prospect, showing power, a solid hit tool, strikezone command and some speed.  There is still a lot of clean-up needed in Mahtook's game, including his first step in the outfield, lines on the bases and timing at the plate.  That said, he has definitely made progress from the summer, where even squared balls were not jumping like they should have.  He's still outside the 1st Round for me, but I have no trouble envisioning a team grabbing him early -- particularly if they are willing to buy into this spring's stat line reflective of his potential with wood against better pitching (I'm not there yet).  A 2nd to 3rd Round talent preseason, Mahtook looks like a safe sandwich guy at this point with a shot to stay in center and develop into a solid #2 or #6 hitter.

Johnny Eierman (Warsaw HS, Warsaw, Mo.):  Eierman was the third best positional talent I saw at the Area Code Games, though it looked likely even then that he would be shifting off of short at the next level.  While some evaluators have mentioned 2nd or 3rd base to me, I think center field is the best fit, allowing his speed and arm to play-up and taking some pressure off of the development of the bat.  The transition shouldn't be cumbersome for an athlete like Eierman, and the power/speed combo is an easy "win" in the eight-spot.  Like Mahtook, I viewed Eierman as a late-2nd or 3rd Rounder preseason, but I wouldn't be shocked to see someone nab him in the Supplemental-1st given his upside.

Nick Ahmed (Univ. of Connecticut):  This may get some funny looks, but after some extended up-close looks at Ahmed this spring, I love the idea of shifting him out to center field.  His hands and first step in the field are good, but I'd be surprised if his body didn't ultimately force him off shortstop due to future drop in agility.  This is where it's important to differentiate between "foot speed" and "infield quickness."  Ahmed has enough footspeed to cover the gaps in the outfield, and even if he loses a step he should still be able to cover enough ground to stick in center.  I'm not as convinced that a filled-in Ahmed will be able to range to the right and left to the extent needed to play a good ML shortstop.  I wouldn't be the least bit surprised to hear teams plan to work him out in center prior to the draft.  Note: He'll unfortunately be out for a bit, with recent reports of a collapsed lung.  Wishing for a quick and healthy return. 

Value Down
Jackie Bradley, Jr. (Univ. of South Carolina):   An offensive slump and untimely wrist injury (is there ever a good time?) have sapped some of JBJ's stock, but he's still a 1st Rounder for me.  Part of his offensive struggles appeared to be a desire to yank the ball early in counts -- something he did a little more successfully earlier in the year by pulling back his aggressiveness deeper in the count and relying on a usually-compact stroke with good barrel control.  Long term, I am not concerned with Bradley's potential in center or his ability to find a niche as a solid #2 hitter.  But without substantive growth since last summer, and with some of the prep outfielders showing some interesting skill profiles, his value has to be at least a little down at this point.

Kyle Gaedele (Valporaiso Univ.):  Gaedele entered the year riding high off of a strong performance in the Northwoods League (college summer wood bat league) that included a regular display of big power, both in-game and pre-game.  This spring he continues to drive the ball, but has seen some of the length in his swing exploited, and has struggled some to square the ball as often as he did in 2010 (summer and spring).  I'll get an up-close look at Gaedele when he makes his way to UW-Milwaukee at the end of the month, at which point I'll feel a little more comfortable with dissecting his swing/approach.  The physical tools are still there, and the speed/arm-strength/power combo could easily keep him in the sandwich round -- particularly to a club like Tampa with some extra picks.

Midseason Stock Watch: Shortstop

Nick J. Faleris
April 17, 2011

Next up on our midseason review here at the DSS Blog is a look at some of the evolving values of the various players listed on our updated top 15 shortstops rankings.

Holding Value
Francisco Lindor (Montverde Academy, Montverde, Fla.):  Lindor entered the spring as the top shortstop in the draft class, and one of the few higher-ceilinged players to project to short, defensively.  He exits his spring season in the same spot, and is a virtual lock to come off the board in the first half of the 1st Round, with a solid shot at the top 10 overall.  Lindor has fluid actions, soft hands, and enough range and arm to project to plus defense as a pro.  A switch hitter, he was impressive from both sides of the plate, with more loft and length from the left and a compact, line-drive-producing stroke from the right.

Julius Gaines (Luella HS, Locust Grove, Ga.):  Gaines could go flashy-play-for-flashy-play with Lindor.  Serving as human highlight real in Long Beach during the Area Code Games last August and unceremoniously following that up with an impressive five-day stretch with the Royals Baseball Club in Jupiter, as their starting shortstop.  An excellent defender, Gaines was inconsistent with the bat during the summer before flashing some hard contact in August and providing a very impressive slew of linedrives in October.  Georgia high school ball is notoriously uneven across and within their various league levels, and given the deep class Gaines could slip all the way to the Late-Supplemental-1st and perhaps the Early-2nd Round, in spite of a Top 50 tool set. 

Trevor Story (Irving HS, Irving, Texas):  Story had us scratching our heads after a sluggish showing at the Area Code Games, before turning in one of the most impressive four-day performances around at the WWBA World Championship in October (along with teammate Josh Bell (of, Jesuit Coll. Prep., Dallas, Texas).  Story has the athleticism, arm strength and frame to play short at the next level and his bat has continued to show adequate or better (though you may have missed it if you haven't checked-in on him since late summer.  He is one of four prep infielders that should project to the first 50 picks - along with Lindor, Gaines and Javier Baez (Arlington Country Day Sch., Jacksonville, Fla.). 

Value Up
Austin Nola (Louisiana St. Univ.):  Nola has earned his rep as one of the best defensive shortstops on the college landscape starting with his freshman year at LSU, where he served as the infield anchor on the team that returned the National Championship to Baton Rogue.  Two years later, we've seen the bat start to come around this spring.  His soft hands and overall defensive package was enough to make him a 100 target entering the season, but his solid offensive showing - even with his recent struggles - could see him jump into early Day 2 or even late Day 1 consideration.  A lot will depend on how he looks over the next six weeks.

Brandon Loy (Univ. of Texas):  Loy entered the spring as Nola's superior in the field but with more questions relating to his future offensive potential.  The Longhorns shortstop has turned in a solid 35+ games to start the season and may be poised to break into late-2nd Round consideration if he's able to show the same discipline and contact-ability through the remainder of the season.  At a premium defensive position, Loy is as close to a sure thing as you'll find in the college draft ranks.  If he can continue to sell evaluators on his potential to be adequate, offensively, his draft stock will continue to rise.

Tyler Greene (West Boca Raton Comm. HS, Boca Raton, Fla.):  Greene had a tough end to the showcase circuit, including a rough scout workout the Friday and Saturday morning prior to the Under Armour All-America Game.  He came into March looking to show Major League evaluators that he had enough "now" agility to project to short long term, and his bat would play even if he needed to shift either to third or across the bag to second.  He has largely succeeded in reestablishing his value, and he currently sits in a place not dissimilar from where Zach Alvord (Atlanta Braves 18th Rd, now with Auburn Univ.) stood at the end of last spring -- an impressive collection of tools but too much uncertainty in defensive profile and offensive ceiling to warrant 1st Round money.  While Greene has reestablished much of his value with a solid spring, whether or not he makes it to Athens, Georgia next fall could ultimately have more to do with the depth of the draft class than anything else.

Value Down
Marcus Semien (Univ. of California - Berkley):   The slick-fielding Semien has staggered to a .266/.381/.419 slash line through 33 games, and has failed to solidify his draft stock after a solid showing last summer.  There is still time for a late push, but if Semien cannot turn things around in a hurry he will have a tough time cracking the top four rounds as a pure glove -- even at a high-value position like short.

B.A. Vollmuth (Univ. of Southern Mississippi):  Vollmuth continues to show big raw power, but has scuffled defensively and has made it more and more apparent that his future home is likely at third base.  His spring has been largely as expected, with good strength, lots of leverage in his homerun hacks, and a fair amount of swings-and-misses.  Though it's unlikely he'll get many early looks as a future shortstop, he has the potential to come off the board early as a third baseman.

Midseason Stock Watch: Third Basemen

Nick J. Faleris
April 16, 2011

Next up on our midseason review here at the DSS Blog is a look at some of the evolving values of the various players listed on our updated Top 15 Third Basemen rankings.

Holding Value
Anthony Rendon (Rice Univ.):  All spring folks have been writing about Rendon's potential to slip in the draft.  Don't believe the hype.  Barring delivery of a highly concerning medical report, the Rice third basemen should be considered a near lock to be the first position player off the board.  If he doesn't wind up with either Pittsburgh or Seattle at 1:1 or 1:2, respectively, it will be a huge upset.

Javier Baez (Arlington Country Day School, Jacksonville, Fla.):  Baez has grown his national reputation with a strong spring, but those who saw him last summer/fall were already on to the fact that the Florida prepster is an excellent blend of offensive and defensive upside in an athletic and competitive package.  He fits best at second or third base, with some experience behind the plate as well (given his agility and frame, he could get a look there with the right drafting organization).

Jason Esposito (Vanderbilt Univ.): The Vandy third baseman's story remains the same: highly impressive tools with inconsistencies both in the box and in the field.  The shortstop experiment was short-lived, and the fringe-five-tooler has looked solid at third, but questions remain about his footwork and, to some extent, his hands.  A shift to the outfield is not out of the question.  Offensively, the holes in his swing on display this summer do not appear to have shrunk, and it is far from a sure thing that he'll be able to make enough contact for the stick to play at the highest level.  Still, the upside is tremendous, and his athleticism gives him plenty to fall back on should certain areas of his game take time to develop further.  He's still a good bet to come off the board at some point on Day 1. 

Value Up
Matt Skole (Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech)):  The mainstream prospecting world slept on Skole, preseason, and he responded with a strong first half.  As noted during the Georgia Tech/Maryland series at College Park last spring, I have reservations about the glove as a long-term fit at the hot corner.  This spring Skole remains a little tentative in his actions, prone to getting caught flat-footed.  A shift across the diamond could work, though his swing is geared more to wearing out the gaps than lifting the ball.  Once he hits pro ball, some adjustments to add a tad more loft to his cut could turn him into a very good fit at first.  Othewise, his drafting org will hope to bring him up to "serviceable" at third.  Either way, Skole looks to be positioning himself to come off the board in the first few rounds -- not too bad for a player largely overlooked to start the season.

Jake Hager (Sierra Vista HS, Las Vegas, Nev.):  Hager lands on the "rising" list by virtue of drawing stronger consideration at third in this go-round of positional rankings.  A high school shortstop that moves well side to side and shows good arm strength, Hager could find himself at third if he gets too thick down the line.  He possesses plenty of arm strength for either left spot, and has the raw power and ceiling in his bat to profile well at third.

Matthew Dean (The Colony HS, The Colony, Texas):  Dean is an good athlete with a strong arm and some juice in his bat.  His stock fell towards the end of last summer with an uneven workout at the Aflac All-American Baseball Classic following a couple rough games in Long Beach during the Area Code Games.  Jupiter, in October, was a little cleaner, with his ceiling still evident, but we never got to see the breakout hoped for.  This spring he has looked a little sharper, and with the drop in stock for some of the college third baggers, Dean could be working his way up draft lists as June approaches.  Though he's solid enough to hold down short at the collegiate level, it's possible he instead shifts over to third where he can follow in Lusson's footsteps as a plus glove with good arm strength.  He is a much better fit at third as a pro.

Value Down
Harold Martinez (Univ. of Miami):   This spring has been one to forget, offensively, for the Miami slugger.  Though he has started to climb out of his early-dug hole, Martinez continues to fill at bats with a troubling number of empty swings, and the in-game power we saw prior simply has not shown up.  A strong May could re-establish his value quickly -- after all he is a solid glove with good arm strength and a track record.  But he needs to start showing more productive at bats and certainly more power.

Travis Harrison (Tustin HS, Tustin, Calif.):  A regular on the showcase circuit, it seems like Harrison has been on my radar forever.  October 2009 he was perhaps the most impressive bat on his Jupiter ABD Bulldog squad -- a team that included Tony Wolters (Cleveland Indians, 3rd Rd), Christian Yelich (Florida Marlins, 1st Rd), Michael Lorenzen (Tampa Rays, 7th Round - now at Cal St. Fullerton) and Stefan Sabol (17th Round, Atlanta Braves, now at Oregon).  He did not develop as expected between then and this past summer, and his showing this October was solid but unspectacular.  Perhaps it's simply the burden of too many looks, but holes in Harrison's game continue to pop up, not the least of which is whether he is likely to end-up anywhere other than first base.  His spring has been strong, once again, but it's tough to erase some of the showcase/tournament struggles.  His raw power is among the best in the class, and he could still go early, but it would not be a shock to see him slip to the 3rd Round -- almost inconceivable this time last year.